introduction

tropical cyclones are natural events with very destructive impact. on this webpage we present an empirical model which predicts the cyclone track up to 48 hours. the forecast scheme uses a self-adapting analog method based on several publications .

the forecasts are presented for four different regions: atlantic, east pacific, west pacific, and australia. the input data, the prediction of the tracks, and the webpage presentation are obtained automatically by a csh-script every 6 hours (UTC). in this sense it is a operational working forecast scheme for tropical cyclone tracks.

we present a model verification for each region separately using the years 1991 - 2000 as independent verification data set. moreover a comparison between our self-adapting analog model and the official forecasts of the met office (still not available) and the bureau of meteorology australia are shown for the previous cyclone track for the lead time 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours.

acknowledgments: thanks for data supply to the institute for astronomy at the university of hawai`i and paul wessel and walter h. f. smith for developing and maintaining the free plotting software gmt .

note: we do not take the full responsibility for the correctness, availability of the forecasts, or the break down of the forecasting system. the tropical cyclone data and forecasts presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. if you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. these data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. we explicitly dissociate from all contents of linked internet pages on http://visibility.zmaw.de/TC/ and do not adopt these contents.